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Eritrea, Ethiopia: declining pace of bilateral engagement
Summary The Eritrean government was unimpressed that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was the sole recipient for the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. Regardless, initiatives to restore geopolitical cooperation between Ethiopia and Eritrea were frequent and multidimensional over the course of 2018, but largely absent in
Côte d’Ivoire: 2020 elections & cocoa season uncertainty
Summary Côte d’Ivoire holds a presidential election on October 31, 2020 and electoral campaigns evolving in 2019 raise uncertainty as to the output of next year’s cocoa bean harvest. Analysis Côte d’Ivoire is the world leader in cocoa bean production. Latest estimates forecast that for
Angola: Lourenço’s state of the nation
Summary Angolan President João Lourenço will open October 15 a new session of the country’s parliament with a state of the nation address. The state of Lourenço’s nation is economic underperformance and muted political controversy. Analysis President João Lourenço will convene on October 15 a
South Africa: equity not privatization rationale
Summary Preserving scarce formal sector employment is the motivation of behind South Africa’s ruling African National Congress in seeking equity partnerships for and not the privatization of the country’s loss-making state-owned companies. Analysis South African President Cyril Ramaphosa spoke October 14 in London where he
Mali: anticipating the Cissé government evaluation
Malian Prime Minister Boubou Cissé is on a two-day visit to the central Malian city of Mopti, where he will consult with a series of government and civil society representatives. Cissé’s visit to Mopti comes in advance of a 6-month evaluation of his government’s performance,
South Africa: the knowns and unknowns of the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement
South African Finance Minister Tito Mboweni will on October 30 deliver his Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS). The parliamentary briefing by the finance minister will be intensely scrutinized by a host of domestic and foreign stakeholders, and the responses to Mboweni’s fiscal guidance will
Zimbabwe: Mnangagwa’s State of the Nation
Summary Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa delivered October 1 a state of the nation address to open a new session of the country’s parliament. While most Zimbabweans would not dispute their nation faces considerable challenges, agreeing on unity of purpose so as to gain meaningful socioeconomic
Zimbabwe: immaterial outlook for Maintenance of Peace and Order Bill
Summary The banning of opposition demonstrations in Zimbabwe means that no matter the imminent gazetting of the Maintenance of Peace and Order Bill, there are insufficient democratic governance reforms underway by the Zimbabwean government that would result in economic reengagement with and the lifting of
Angola: domestic and foreign concessions to make
The Angolan government is determining what concessions to make for interest in the country’s hydrocarbons sector rising from domestic as well as foreign constituents. Concessions extended to foreign concerns would demonstrate economic governance reforms the government has initiated. Economic as well as political and security
Guinea: consolidating an extra presidential term bid
Guinean President Alpha Condé is on his way to France to participate in activities commemorating the 75th anniversary of allied forces landings in southern France during World War II. Certainly memorializing the role of Guinean (and other francophone African) soldiers fighting alongside French forces during
Zimbabwe: a test for MOPA legislation
The Zimbabwean opposition party Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) is conducting final preparations to hold a national protest rally against the Zimbabwean government on August 16. The rally is intended to express grievances of degrading socioeconomic livelihoods and also over the government’s handling of general
Democratic Republic of the Congo: forming the Tshisekedi administration
Democratic Republic of the Congo Prime Minister Sylvester Ilunga Ilunkamba received a list of sixty-five candidate cabinet ministers, which he will present to President Félix Tshisekedi on August 13. The process in the Congo of forming the new Tshisekedi administration certainly conforms to the country’s internal
West Africa: Will Eco Work?
Disclaimer: This analysis is the product of a strategic partnership between SBM Intel, of Lagos, Nigeria, and Geomarkets Africa LLC. All the information contained in it is correct as of Tuesday, 25 June, 2019. Finance ministers and central bank governors of 15 West African countries,
Tanzania: Budget Day, Supply Chain Priorities, Absent Bagamoyo
Summary The Tanzanian parliament will vote June 13 to approve the government’s 2019/20 budget that calls for spending of 33 trillion Tanzanian shillings (approximately $14.6 billion). A significant amount of money, more than $2.2 billion, is set aside for national priority infrastructure development projects. Absent
Ghana, Canada: successful hostage rescue near Kumasi lessens Al Qaeda likelihood
Summary Ghanaian security forces successfully rescued two female Canadian volunteers who were kidnapped June 4. The timing and location of the hostage rescue operation reveals the intent by the kidnappers was local and criminal in nature as opposed to the possibility the kidnapping was a
Democratic Republic of the Congo: asserting defense of the Mining Code
Summary The reappointment of Albert Yuma as chairman of the board of the state-owned Gecamines mining company means Barrick Gold, Glencore, and Ivanhoe Mines can anticipate an assertive defense of the country’s Mining Code when they approach the Tshisekedi administration to moderate the government’s fiscal
South Africa: implementing the first structural reform
Summary The resignation by Vuyani Jarana as chief executive officer of South African Airways is effectively the byproduct of structural reform implementation by the South African government. Analysis Jarana resigned as Chief Executive Officer of South African Airways with an effective date of August 31,
South Africa: elections, geopolitics, and the African National Congress
South Africans go to the polls on May 8 to elect a new government, making 2019 South Africa’s sixth general election since the country’s transition from apartheid to democracy in 1994. In all cases, the African National Congress (ANC) was elected with a majority of
Nigeria: criminal vs geostrategic militancy in the Niger Delta
An uptick in security incidents in Nigeria’s oil and gas producing Niger Delta region raises concern whether a new militancy campaign in the area is being inaugurated. Combined with lingering policy uncertainty, volatility in the Niger Delta does not bridge the confidence gap international oil
Democratic Republic of the Congo: the Mining Code in moderation
In the nearly three months now since Félix Tshisekedi was elected the president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the country’s new leader has conducted a wide range of consultations on political, economic and security concerns at home and abroad, including to the United
Angola: second instance of coercive recovery of embezzled funds
Angola’s National Directorate for Preventing and Combating Corruption (DNPCC) recovered $286 million in embezzled funds being managed by the China Infrastructure Fund (CIF)-Angola. The recovery represents the second instance that the Angolan government has employed coercive measures and restored control over state assets. In both
Côte d’Ivoire: elections, unity, and economic growth
April 11 marked eight years since then-President Laurent Gbagbo was captured by Ivoirian and French military forces. Gbagbo’s capture in 2011 and subsequent transfer to the International Criminal Court at The Hague for prosecution on war crimes charges brought an end to the country’s civil
Zimbabwe: platinum mining, IMF talks, and reforms encouragement
Restoring healthy growth to the Zimbabwean political economy took several constructive steps forward on April 10. To be sure, however, these developments are still in their early-stages and are dependent on verifiable reformist behavior by the Emmerson Mnangagwa-led Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) government.
Mozambique: worrisome anomaly in militant attack targeting
While Mozambique President Filipe Nyusi stated in a public address on April 7 that the country’s defense and armed forces carried out an assault on a suspected Islamist militant camp in the Macomia district of the country’s Cabo Delgado province, capturing fighters and materiel, the
Democratic Republic of the Congo, U.S: Executive Order 13817, cobalt, and why Tshisekedi’s U.S. visit
Summary: Political analysis suggests Tshisekedi’s U.S. visit from April 2-6 anomalous. U.S. geostrategy reveals the intent and precedent behind the Congo president’s first non-African official foreign travel. Analysis Democratic Republic of the Congo President Félix Tshisekedi concluded an official visit to the U.S. on April
Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo: rival visits to Moscow, Washington
As the U.S. government prepares to receive the Democratic Republic of the Congo President Félix Tshisekedi for the latter’s first non-Africa foreign travel since becoming his nation’s leader, the Russian government is receiving Angola’s president, João Lourenço. The timing of the visits by the African
Ethiopia: to liberalize the financial sector, capital market
Governor of the National Bank of Ethiopia Yinager Dessie announced March 28 to the nation’s parliament that the government plans to liberalize the financial sector and capital market to provide for foreign participation. The development conforms to the track record of politically-sensitive economic reforms initiated
Kenya, Uganda: absent supply chain funding commitments
Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta is hosting Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni in the Kenyan port city of Mombasa March 27-28. While the two leaders discussed deepening supply chain cooperation between the countries, there was no clear commitment by either government to fund the extension of upgraded
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Tshisekedi’s inaugural presidential visit to the U.S.
Democratic Republic of the Congo President Félix Tshisekedi is making preparations for an official visit to the United States for early April. The agenda for Tshisekedi’s visit, which will also be his first trip outside of Africa since becoming the Congo’s president on January 24,
Angola: first instance of coercive recovery of state assets
The Angolan government released from detention José Filomeno dos Santos and Jean-Claude Bastos de Morais following the recovery of $3.35 billion the two former Sovereign Fund of Angola directors had administered. Dos Santos, the son of former Angolan President José Eduardo dos Santos, was released
Nigeria: electoral but no Niger Delta militant violence
Voters in Nigeria’s oil-producing Rivers State are awaiting results from the country’s Independent National Electoral Commission as to state governorship and state assembly elections held on March 9. The state-level elections were suspended by the electoral commission amid widespread polling station violence and disruptions. A
Angola: providing for rebel-countering development
Angolan finance minister Archer Mangueira stated March 14 the World Bank will provide a $1 billion loan to the country to finance socio-economic and development projects. The $1 billion loan, along with a previously-approved World Bank $500 million loan, will be disbursed over the next
Democratic Republic of the Congo: sustaining the Mining Code
Democratic Republic of the Congo presidential chief of staff Vital Kamerhe met March 12 with leaders of the country’s mining sector in the mining city of Kolwezi. Kamerhe stated a mining conference will be soon held, preferably in Kolwezi, that will bring together mining companies,
Angola: UNITA validates FLEC grievances
Grievances expressed by the armed forces command of the Front for the Liberation of the Cabinda Enclave (FLEC) were echoed by the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) political party, a move that provides additional political legitimacy for an adverse insurgency against
Zimbabwe: adverse outcome in economic talks with South Africa
Zimbabwe hosted presidential-level Bi-National Commission talks on March 12 with the South African government. The outcome of the talks between Presidents Emmerson Mnangagwa and Cyril Ramaphosa were insubstantial and, coming from an erstwhile ally, will likely redouble pressure on the Mnangagwa administration to effect meaningful
Nigeria: a raid in Port Harcourt, a challenge to Niger Delta militancy
Nigerian soldiers raided on March 7 the palace of the Amanyanabo of the Okochiri Kingdom, the traditional ruler in the Okirika Local Government Area of Port Harcourt, the capital of the country’s oil-producing Rivers State. The raid comes two days ahead of planned nation-wide state
Zimbabwe: indigenization reforms, preserving a $4 billion investment deal
Zimbabwean Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube stated his government is ending indigenous ownership requirements for foreign investment in the country’s platinum mining sector. Ncube added that local ownership requirements may be similarly removed from Zimbabwe’s diamond sector. Indigenous ownership requirements were introduced by the Zimbabwean government
Mozambique: Anadarko on track for Final Investment Decision
The U.S. energy company Anadarko stated March 5 that it remains on schedule to make a Final Investment Decision for its liquified natural gas project in Mozambique. The decision follows a review of the February 21 security incident in Mozambique that construction workers contracted to
Zimbabwe: sanctions renewal, recourse to alternative lending
The U.S. government renewed Executive Order 13288 for another twelve-month period, maintaining travel and monetary sanctions on more than one hundred and forty officials of the Zimbabwean government, including President Emmerson Mnangagwa. The renewal of the U.S. executive order sanctions, which otherwise would have expired
Nigeria: Buhari’s patronage of the Niger Delta
Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari is visiting the Delta State capital of Warri on March 4. Buhari’s visit, coming in between his recent reelection as Nigerian president and the country’s upcoming state governorship and state assembly elections, is to ensure an accommodative accord between his federal
Angola: Cabinda threat, Eurobond auction
The Angolan government intends to auction $2 billion in Eurobonds during the second quarter this year. Due diligence the Angolan government has disclosed for previous Eurobond auctions, which most recently include three issuances worth $3.5 billion in 2018, factored in the risk to the Angolan
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Tshisekedi’s cabinet, policy continuity
Democratic Republic of the Congo President Félix Tshisekedi spoke February 27 on how he will form a new government administration in league with former President Joseph Kabila. Tshisekedi’s expressions validate that policy continuity, especially in the extractive industries space, will prevail. Tshisekedi was elected the
Mozambique: operationalizing oppositional security cooperation
Mozambique President and ruling Mozambique Liberation Front (FRELIMO) leader Filipe Nyusi and Ossufo Momade of the country’s opposition Mozambique National Resistance (RENAMO) party met in the nation’s capital, Maputo, February 27 to consolidate agreements incorporating oppositional security forces into command of the country’s armed and
Nigeria: managing Buhari’s win by the Niger Delta
Preliminary results from Nigeria’s presidential election indicate that incumbent leader Muhammadu Buhari of the ruling All Progressives Congress will defeat principal challenger Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party and secure a second four-year term in office. Buhari has reportedly obtained sufficient votes in the
Mozambique: fresh militant attack in Cabo Delgado underscores that Anadarko not singled out
Suspected militants attacked on February 23 a vehicle carrying civilians in a remote section of Macomia district of Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province. The attack resulted in six people being killed and several wounded. Occurring two days after attacks on vehicles carrying contractors supporting the
Mozambique: attacks in Cabo Delgado not to disrupt Anadarko FID
The two attacks late February 21 by suspected Islamist militants on contractors involved in the Anadarko-led greenfield liquified natural gas project in northern Mozambique is profile raising but won’t disrupt the Final Investment Decision the international oil company will make by late March or early
Nigeria: $20 billion & Buhari’s counter to Atiku’s restructuring
$20 billion is apparently the offer agents of Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari conveyed to political leaders of the country’s oil and gas producing Niger Delta region in exchange for their vote support at the nation’s presidential election rescheduled for February 24. As Geomarkets Africa reported
Zimbabwe: no dollar peg & other liberalizing public policies
Governor of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe John Mangudya announced February 20 that the country’s newly created currency, the Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) Dollar, will see its exchange rate value determined by market forces, bringing at least partial change to the country’s monetary policy.
Democratic Republic of the Congo: extracting mining sector funding for economic policy
Prime Minister Bruno Tshibala of the Democratic Republic of the Congo proposed that a new tax is levied on the country’s mining sector so that sufficient resources may be generated to underwrite efforts to develop and diversify the Congolese economy. Tshibala’s proposal is consistent with
Mozambique: advancing on political, economic and security accords
The Mozambique government announced February 14 the approval of a governance decentralization agreement. The decentralization accord, to empower political representation at the provincial level in the country, affirms and broadens cooperation with the government’s principal opposition party the Mozambique National Resistance (RENAMO). Together with advances
Nigeria: Niger Delta yet on standby
Nigeria holds presidential and national assembly elections on February 16. As the results are too early to forecast, confidence among stakeholders and especially militants in the country’s oil and gas producing Niger Delta region is on standby. Nigeria’s national elections on February 16 will be
Zimbabwe: repealing adverse legislation for sanctions-lifting outlook
The Zimbabwean cabinet resolved February 12 that the Zimbabwean government’s Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act (AIPPA) should be repealed. The repeal of the controversial piece of legislation, which would complement the repeal of the Public Order and Security Act (POSA) of 2002
Eritrea: renewing redundant supply chain infrastructure
Support is advancing to upgrade Eritrea’s Massawa port such that supply chain connectivity may be made robust and redundant not only for Eritrea but for Ethiopia as well, in addition to other foreign powers holding geopolitical interests along the Red Sea region. https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Eritrean_ports_of_Massawa_Assab/8Ij14EiP3M Massawa, along
Democratic Republic of the Congo: early directionality of economic, mining policy
Democratic Republic of the Congo President Félix Tshisekedi indicated the directionality of his new government’s economic policy when he stated February 10 the country will no longer be the victim of greed over its natural resources. Tshisekedi’s sentiment is consistent with an outlook of policy
Côte d’Ivoire: bringing clarity to political alliances
With the February 8 resignation of President of the National Assembly Guillaume Soro, Côte d’Ivoire political alliances are advancing in clarity and shape. While Soro’s resignation reveals the assertiveness of incumbent Côte d’Ivoire President Alassane Ouattara, the development underscores a greater likelihood of political change
Chad: Consecutive French air strikes reveals strategic threat
French general staff confirmed February 7 that French aircraft conducted additional air strikes in Chad targeting rebels following an initial bombing run by French forces on February 3. The second series of airstrikes, during February 5-6, was located in the area of Am Djarass, approximately
Zimbabwe: sanctions renewal and credit challenges
The Zimbabwean government is continuing to put forward its case to have sanctions on its officials lifted. Most recently, Minister of Lands and retired Air Chief Marshal Perrance Shiri was directed by Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa to brief Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta in Nairobi on
Chad: why the French military intervened
French military aircraft struck a column of Chadian rebels February 3. What compelled the French intervention in Chad was the anomalous scale of the column and strategic nature of the location of the French strike. Clashes in northern Chad are not an unusual occurrence, but
Democratic Republic of the Congo: building out diplomatic priorities
The Democratic Republic of the Congo President Félix Tshisekedi will shortly conduct his first foreign travel since becoming the country’s leader January 24. Tshisekedi will visit with the leaders of Angola, Kenya and the Republic of the Congo February 5-6, to be followed by his
Mozambique: closer to first gas
Confidence in Mozambique’s geomarket outlook was further raised February 1 by the announcement that Anadarko secured another significant Sales and Purchase Agreement (SPA) for the future supply of liquified natural gas from offshore deposits of the southern African country. Anadarko’s SPA brings the oil and
Angola: righting commercial arrears
January 31 marks the deadline for private companies to submit claims of arrears owed to them by the Angolan government. The development underscores Angolan government efforts to de-politicize its commercial relations and restore domestic and foreign investor confidence. The concern of arrears of commercial debts
Democratic Republic of the Congo: building out economic policy
Following his January 24 inauguration as President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Félix Tshisekedi is establishing the functions of his new office. Economic policy direction has not yet been addressed, but continuity is the likely path forward, insofar as regulating the country’s mining
Zimbabwe: far apart on civil service confidence
The Zimbabwean government will field a 48-hour ultimatum on January 30 from the country’s civil service umbrella organization to resolve public worker’s wage demands. Given the Zimbabwean government’s largely empty treasury, it is not likely a satisfactory agreement will be reached, which will likely lead
Mauritania: selecting regime continuity post-Aziz
Mauritania government spokesman Sidi Mohamed Ould Maham announced January 29 that Defense Minister Mohamed Ould El Ghazouani was selected as the ruling Union for the Republic (UPR) party candidate to stand in the country’s upcoming presidential election. The selection of Ghazouani to succeed incumbent President
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Tshisekedi building out his governance platform
Since being inaugurated the president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Félix Tshisekedi has begun a series of internal political consultations as well as initiating foreign diplomatic relations, all intended to consolidate the legitimacy of his new presidency. Tshisekedi was inaugurated in Kinshasa, the
Chad: minimizing geopolitical volatility
The Chadian government received approval for the third tranche of an Extended Credit Facility with the International Monetary Fund, citing information the IMF released January 24. The roughly $49 million in funding is to support economic reforms initiated and sustained by the Chadian government. Combined
Senegal: asserting petroleum accountability
Senegal’s national assembly approved January 24 the government’s new Petroleum Code. The adoption, as it occurs one month before the country holds presidential, regional and municipal elections, asserts accountability and transparency into the development of the country’s promising oil and gas sector. The adoption of
Zimbabwe: diamonds and ZANU-PF continuity
Zimbabwean government-controlled media reported January 24 that President Emmerson Mnangagwa approved the appointments of Russia’s ALROSA and China’s Anjin Investments as the country’s foreign partners to explore and mine diamond concessions in Zimbabwe. The development marks progress in the Zimbabwean government’s commitment to creating new
Ethiopia: an arrest to assert internal reform
The January 23 arrest by police forces from Ethiopia’s Amhara regional state of Bereket Simon, a very senior former Ethiopian government official who served as key lieutenant to former (and deceased) Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, is intended to constrain active dissent toward reformist leadership and
Democratic Republic of the Congo: the day after Tshisekedi’s inauguration
January 26 [editor’s note: Tshisekedi was inaugurated January 24] will see Félix Tshisekedi be inaugurated president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, succeeding Joseph Kabila in what will be the country’s first ever transfer of presidential power effected by the ballot box. Tshisekedi’s work
Zimbabwe: known unknowns for sanctions lifting
Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa called January 22 for an investigation into violence committed by the country’s security forces on civic demonstrators protesting the country’s very challenging socioeconomic conditions, of which a gasoline price hike was the tipping point. Mnangagwa’s address was his first since canceling
Democratic Republic of the Congo: state legitimization of Tshisekedi as president
Félix Tshisekedi, of the opposition Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS), was validated the president-elect of the Democratic Republic of the Congo by the country’s Constitutional Court and, just as importantly, the regional political body the Southern African Development Community (SADC). The Constitutional Court
Zimbabwe: frosty welcome in Davos
Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa will participate in the World Economic Forum set to be held January 22-25 in Davos, Switzerland, aiming to persuade the gathering of global political and business leaders that his southern African country is open for business. The Zimbabwean leader will likely
Democratic Republic of the Congo: material confidence in political-economic outlook
While voters in and observers of the Democratic Republic of the Congo await definitive results from the country’s December 30 presidential election, other interested stakeholders are not. Notably, the Hong Kong-listed China Molybdenum Co. Ltd (CMOC) announced January 18 a $1.14 billion agreement to increase
Mozambique: Renewal in RENAMO leadership sustains stable growth outlook
Ossufo Momade was on January 17 elected leader of the opposition Mozambique National Resistance (RENAMO) party at a leadership congress held at the party’s headquarters in the country’s central Gorongosa highlands. Momade’s election makes permanent the interim leadership role he has held since the natural
Burkina Faso: anomalous and worrisome killing of Canadian gold miner
Burkina Faso authorities announced January 17 that the Canadian citizen kidnapped from the Progress Minerals mining site in the West African country two days prior was found killed January 16. Though militant violence is a frequent occurrence in northeastern Burkina Faso, the targeting and quick
Democratic Republic of the Congo: non-interference & elections resolve
The African Union will convene a head of state and government level meeting January 17 to deliberate on the Democratic Republic of the Congo disputed elections results. The high-level meeting in Addis Ababa is notable as such a specific agenda is a rare event for
Mauritania: rising geopolitical outlook
As Mauritania approaches a geopolitical inflection point in the form of a presidential election set to be held roughly April 15, the outlook for the country is positive and rising. The combination of significant investment in Mauritania’s oil and gas sector and a likely smooth
Gabon: Ondimba’s return, mature continuity
President of Gabon Ali Bongo Ondimba returned home late January 14 from his convalescence in Morocco, where he had been following a stroke he suffered while in Saudi Arabia on October 24. Ondimba did not appear in the Gabonese public, but nonetheless asserted the functions
Côte d’Ivoire: Gbagbo’s acquittal, reconciliatory political-economic outlook
Former President of Côte d’Ivoire Laurent Gbagbo was acquitted by the International Criminal Court on charges related to war crimes committed during the final days of his 2000-2010 presidency. The release of Gbagbo and his likely soon return to the West African country allows for
Zimbabwe: the challenge to de-politicize economic reform
In the nearly six months now since Zimbabwe held national elections, the country’s politics and economy remain almost at a standstill. To the government, opposition, and civil society, relief can’t come soon enough. The challenge, though, is reconciling what needs to change in order to
Democratic Republic of the Congo: policy continuity with or without a government of national unity
The Democratic Republic of the Congo’s independent electoral commission set a revised date of January 22 for the inauguration of the country’s next president. The rescheduled date complies with and allows for a seven-day deadline for Congo’s Constitutional Court to rule on final results of
Chad: a mini-reshuffle and a patrimonial visit: instilling fiscal, regime discipline
President of Chad Idriss Déby effected a mini-reshuffle of his cabinet January 11, while also conducting a tour of his home Ennedi West province in the country’s remote northeast. In both cases, the Chadian president intends to ensure sound discipline over two areas of geopolitical
Ethiopia: Substantial Advance for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
The Ethiopian Electric Power company signed on January 10 a $78 million agreement with Voith Hydro Shanghai for the installation and commissioning of six generators for the country’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The agreement represents a substantial advance in the development of the proposed
Côte d’Ivoire: not quite reconciliation, but inclusion supports positive economic outlook
Ivoirian political parties are headed into a season of leadership congresses in which they will select electoral candidates and policy platforms, all aimed to secure victory in the country’s presidential election due on October 21, 2020. Presidential elections in Côte d’Ivoire can be a flashpoint
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Tshisekedi declared provisional president-elect
Félix Tshisekedi, of the opposition Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS), was declared January 10 the provisionally-elected president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. With a final tally due by January 15, Tshisekedi can look forward to succeeding outgoing President Joseph Kabila roughly
Democratic Republic of the Congo: likely disputed election outcome, but undisputed policy preferences
The independent electoral commission of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is in the final hours of counting ballots from the country’s December 30 presidential election, with provisional results possibly to be released by January 10. Each of Congo’s three main presidential contenders are
Angola: fine-tuning accountable government leadership
Angolan President João Lourenço continued to fine-tune his government’s political leadership, adjusting on January 4 the membership of the Council of the Republic, as well as reshuffling on January 2 the governors of the country’s Luanda, Cuanza Norte and Cuanza Sul provinces. The moves are
Eritrea, Ethiopia: broadening cross-border cooperation
The presidents of Eritrea and Ethiopia met January 7 to open the Omhajer-Humera border crossing between the two countries. Located at the westernmost point of the shared border, the opening is the third such development and is a further validation of bilateral political and economic
Gabon: no precedent for a military coup
Members of the Gabonese military attempted to overthrow the government of President Ali Bongo Ondimba on January 7. Announced on state television by Lieutenant Kelly Ondo Obiang and calling their members the Patriotic Movement of the Defense and Security Forces of Gabon, the attempted coup
Somalia: regional elections, al Shabaab rehabilitation
Summary The pathway is clearing for Mukhtar Robow Abu Mansur to run for the presidency of the South West State of Somalia. Robow, a politically rehabilitated former deputy commander of the Somali Islamist militant group al Shabaab, will be supported so as to help secure
Angola, Portugal: de-politicization of commercial diplomacy
Summary Angolan President João Lourenço will visit Portugal from November 22-24 in what is a visit aimed to normalize and consolidate the de-politicization of commercial diplomacy not only between the two lusophone countries but by the Angolan state. Analysis Lourenço will visit Portugal to build
Democratic Republic of the Congo: fractured opposition & electoral competition
Summary Democratic Republic of the Congo opposition leader Martin Fayulu arrives in the country’s capital Kinshasa November 21 aiming to make the case why he should be the country’s next president. While Fayulu is no longer a consensus opposition candidate running against the incumbent political
Nigeria: 2019 elections, Niger Delta doesn’t lose
Summary Nigeria’s leading candidates in the country’s February 16 presidential election have now released their campaign manifestos. For the country’s’ politically-sensitive oil-producing Niger Delta region, neither top candidate is a losing proposition. Analysis Atiku Abubakar, the candidate for the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), presented
Côte d’Ivoire: presidential candidacies, ethnopolitical stability
Summary The Ivoirian opposition party the Rassemblement pour la Côte d’Ivoire (RACI) will convene an extraordinary congress on November 18 and possibly nominate Speaker of the National Assembly Guillaume Soro its presidential candidate for elections due in 2020. If he accepts, Soro would become the
Zimbabwe: budget policy, ZANU-PF getting out of business
Summary Zimbabwean finance minister Mthuli Ncube will deliver his inaugural national budget statement to the country’s parliament on November 22. The budget proposed for 2019 will be informed by the Zimbabwean government getting out of the business of business. Analysis Mthuli Ncube will deliver to
Eritrea: lifting of United Nations sanctions
Summary The likely lifting of United Nations Security Council sanctions on Eritrea will validate the path and pace of Eritrean political and economic reform and restore Western diplomatic ties commensurate to what Eritrea is enjoying with its near abroad. Analysis The United Nations Security Council
Democratic Republic of the Congo: oppositional disunity
Summary Disunity in the Democratic Republic of the Congo political opposition undermine their campaign credibility, however the focus on personalities rather than policy preferences safeguards the stable outlook for Congo’s political-economy. Analysis Democratic Republic of the Congo opposition leaders gathered over the weekend in Geneva
Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia: summit in Bahirdar
Summary The leaders of Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia will meet November 9 in the Ethiopian city of Bahirdar for what is their second summit in as many months. The agenda for Bahirdar is to review progress on trilateral political and economic agreements, while the summit
Gabon: continuity of geostrategic stability
Summary The Gabonese government effecting substantive hydrocarbons as well as economic policy despite the extended health-related absence from Gabon of President Ali Bongo Ondimba reflects continuity of the country’s geostrategic stability. Analysis Gabonese Oil and Hydrocarbons Minister Pascal Ambouroue provided a briefing November 7 on
Democratic Republic of the Congo: oppositional conclave in Geneva
Summary Democratic Republic of the Congo opposition presidential candidates are gathering in Geneva November 7-10 to strategize on a common platform and candidate for the country’s December 23 presidential election. From Geneva the parties will have roughly six weeks to assure themselves and their constituents
Zimbabwe: mining sector privatization, consolidating democratic reforms
Summary Zimbabwean Mines and Mining Development Minister Winston Chitando stated November 5 his government intends to privatize the assets of the state-owned Zimbabwe Mining Development Corporation (ZMDC) so as to rationalize underperforming mining companies. The inclusion of elite-captured mining operations, notably in diamonds, will also
Senegal: transparent & accountable oil and gas legislation
Summary The publicly transparent and democratically accountable submission in December of new oil and gas legislation by the Senegalese government a full two months preceding national elections underscores the country’s elevated political economic outlook. Analysis Senegalese President Macky Sall has stated his government will submit
Somalia: from security to development paradigm
Summary Somalia is beginning to build out a capability beyond a security paradigm, with meaningful diplomatic, official public and private assistance being mobilized to support the country’s albeit modest transition from a state of Islamist militancy siege to measurable growth and development. Analysis November will
Mauritania: continuity, stability post-legislative elections
Summary The Mauritanian government has liaised with internal and foreign political, economic and security stakeholders to convey and safeguard stability and continuity following recent legislative elections that saw the ruling Union for the Republic (UPR) party dominate the outcome. Analysis The administration of President Mohamed
Angola: confidence, oil & gas, and political-economic decentralization
Summary The Angolan government’s decentralization of political and economic competencies to provincial and municipal jurisdictions notably includes crude oil and natural gas responsibilities and intends to convey a regime conducive to investor confidence and commitments. Analysis The Angolan government inaugurated October 29 the decentralization of
Mozambique: funding of FRELIMO-RENAMO security, political cooperation
Summary Official development assistance recently conveyed to Mozambique helps to solve for inclusive security and development governance requirements while the opposition Mozambique National Resistance (RENAMO) and ruling Mozambique Liberation Front (FRELIMO) parties resolve on municipal elections and political cooperation disputes. Analysis Approximately $200 million of
South Africa: important boost of domestic investor confidence
Summary The South Africa Investment Conference has resulted in pledges so far of R128 billion (roughly $9 billion) to be made over the next several years. Much of the money is from existing domestic companies with active operations in South Africa, translating to an important
Gabon: budget, austerity, and relief for stressed social contract
Summary The Gabonese government has proposed budget support for the country’s public sector in a move that complies with austerity pressures yet defends Gabon’s stressed social contract. Analysis The Gabonese government took steps to preserve a significant measure of the country’s social contract, authorizing a
Zambia: 54 years of independence & accountability
Summary Zambia celebrated fifty-four years of independence on October 24. The country has in many ways been a role model in Africa for holding government performance to account, amid internal challenges over styles of liberal and illiberal governance and economic policy. Analysis Zambia achieved its
Chad: imperative of economic diversification and growth
Summary Initiatives by the Déby administration to diversify and grow the country’s economy aim to ameliorate socioeconomic livelihoods and reduce stress within the Chadian government, civil society and country’s national and regional security posture. Analysis The Chadian government is encouraging the diversification of economic activity
Democratic Republic of the Congo: continuity and the presidential election
Summary Two months remain until the Democratic Republic of the Congo holds a presidential election, and conducive foreign diplomatic and domestic economic performance increasingly conform Congo presidential contenders to policy continuity no matter the election outcome. Analysis With essentially two months remaining until a presidential
Eritrea: solving for domestic reform, while negotiating investor, development cooperation
Summary While it continues to negotiate investor and development cooperation, the Eritrean government is working within available means and is implementing agroindustrial programming that helps to both solve for considerable underemployment in the country and to transition those hitherto obligated under national service requirements to
Zimbabwe: unconstitutionality of Public Order and Security Act, a significant opening with the U.S.
Summary Zimbabwe’s Constitutional Court ruling that the Public Order and Security Act of 2002 is unconstitutional is a significant development empowering the Mnangagwa administration to repeal this controversial legislation and begin to renew substantial diplomatic, economic and investment ties with the U.S. government that have
Côte d’Ivoire: regional, municipal elections outcome & concerns for 2020
Summary The outcome of Côte d’Ivoire’s regional and municipal council elections favoring the ruling RHDP was unsurprising. A deepening ethnopolitical divide in the country is worrisome, however, but foreign diplomatic and internal political postures can help to mitigate against rising electoral stress as the country
Mozambique: municipal elections, oil & gas, empower FRELIMO-RENAMO cooperation
Summary Municipal election results from Mozambique alongside new hydrocarbons exploration activities empower the ruling FRELIMO and opposition RENAMO political parties to demonstrate government decentralization and disarmament, demobilization and reintegration initiatives. Analysis Results from Mozambique’s October 10 municipal elections, when placed alongside new exploration developments in
Sierra Leone: IFC funding a boost for electricity, confidence, creditworthiness
Summary The signing of a $40 million credit facility with the International Finance Corporation is the Sierra Leone government’s first notable investment commitment since Julius Maado Bio was elected president in March. The IFC commitment will fund a significant expansion to the country’s installed electricity
Côte d’Ivoire: regional, municipal elections, challenge to political reconciliation
Summary The regional and municipal elections that Côte d’Ivoire will hold on October 13 will likely see a majority of ruling Rally of the Republicans candidates win office. The boycott, challenge, and absence of rival and oppositional parties are challenges to Ivoirian political reconciliation that
Eritrea, Ethiopia, Italy: Conte’s visit for investment, development cooperation
Summary The October 11-12 visit to Ethiopia and Eritrea by Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is the first by a Western head of state or government since the two African neighbors achieved a state of peace in June. Conte’s visit will emphasize investment and development
Nigeria: Atiku, Buhari now claim their campaigns
Summary The selection of Atiku Abubakar as the People’s Democratic Party nominee sets the stage now for Nigeria’s presidential election frontrunners to campaign for their political economic priorities. Incumbent President Buhari enjoys established channels of asserting central authority and control. The Nigerian opposition leader will
Zimbabwe: econ reform – from Look East, to Restore at Home to Regain the West
Summary In what is effectively a policy shift from Look East to Restore at Home so as to Regain the West, Zimbabwean Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube has significant and necessary political cover to initiate growth-intended economic and fiscal reforms. Analysis Zimbabwean Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube
Democratic Republic of the Congo: diverse presidential candidates, consensus policy prescriptions
Summary Congolese presidential contenders hold near consensus policy prescriptions, even as they hold robust differences as to their common candidacies for the country’s December 23 elections. Analysis The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is advancing towards general elections scheduled for December 23. There are
Mozambique: deepening FRELIMO-RENAMO cooperation
Summary Deepening political, economic and security cooperation in Mozambique between the ruling FRELIMO and opposition RENAMO political parties positions the country favorably for upcoming natural gas final investment decisions, no matter the outcome of October 10 municipal elections. Analysis Mozambique President Felipe Nyusi is on
Eritrea: transforming foreign into domestic initiatives
Summary The Eritrean government has initiated a collaborative process designed to shape and direct emerging domestic policy priorities informed by transformational reforms underway in the Horn of Africa region. Analysis The Eritrean government convened a cabinet meeting September 28 to begin to provide shape to
Côte d’Ivoire: diplomatic encouragement for political reconciliation
Summary Diplomatic encouragement for political reconciliation in Côte d’Ivoire is being elevated so as to safeguard stability, economic growth, and ethnopolitical inclusion as the country prepares for regional and municipal elections on October 13 – and a presidential vote in 2020. Analysis During his address
Tanzania: renewing government-business strategy
Summary The Tanzanian government is strategizing a renewed policy environment together with the country’s business sector so that public investments in energy, infrastructure, and transportation can re-incentivize private domestic and foreign investment. Analysis Recurring government efforts indicate Tanzania intends to resolve on legislative and regulatory
Zimbabwe: fusing a parliamentary cooperation
Summary Getting to the yes of meaningful foreign investor and official foreign assistance is pressing Zimbabwe’s Mnangagwa administration and it’s Nelson Chamisa-led opposition to fuse parliamentary cooperation and overcome the fears each has of the other. Analysis Zimbabwe President Emmerson Mnangagwa is reaching out to
South Africa: Ramaphosa’s economic stimulus address, above all, confidence
Summary President Cyril Ramaphosa will present September 21 his agenda to restore economic growth to South Africa. Ramaphosa will speak to a very diverse audience, whose requirements are not necessarily aligned, but who hold in common the need for the South African president to speak
Eritrea: complexities of political reform
Summary Peace, diplomacy and foreign investment pledges continue to be dramatic developments in Eritrea. But complex challenges while materially improving internal economic conditions means the government will be restrained in effecting domestic political reforms. Analysis The Eritrean government faces a complex set of challenges as
Ethiopia: agenda for the EPRDF extraordinary congress
Summary The agenda for the October 3-5 Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front extraordinary congress is to reelect or elect new council and executive leadership. More fundamentally the congress to be held in the southern town of Hawassa is to address deep divisions the ruling alliance
Nigeria: political risk status quo in finance ministry
Summary The September 17 appointment of Zainab Ahmed as acting Finance Minister means political risk status quo for this department of the Nigerian government. Analysis Zainab Ahmed was appointed acting Finance Minister September 17 to take over from Kemi Adeosun, who resigned her position days
Saudi Arabia, Eritrea, Ethiopia: a summit in Jeddah
Summary A trilateral summit will reportedly be held September 16 in Jeddah between the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Eritrea, and Ethiopia. The public agenda holds that the Saudi king will bear witness to the signing of a reconciliation pact between the Horn of Africa neighbors,
Nigeria: merit and the presidential debate
Summary The call for a presidential debate between Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari and Young Progressive Party contender Kingsley Moghalu brings into the public domain the issue of accountability, transparency, and governance that customarily in Nigeria is the province of party godfathers. Analysis Nigerian presidential contender
Ethiopia: EPRDF executive council meeting, test of unity
Summary The September 14 executive council meeting of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front represents its first test of intra-party unity since Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in April. Despite deep tensions within the four-party alliance structure, a pending $1 billion funding proposal from the
Angola: political economic reforms operationalized by provincial governor reshuffles
Summary The imperative to deliver political and economic reforms was further operationalized through the September 12 reshuffle by President Joao Lourenço of several MPLA provincial governors. Analysis Angolan President Joao Lourenço reshuffled several provincial governors September 12. The move supports Lourenço’s imperative to install reformist
South Africa: compromised economic stimulus credibility
Summary A trio of policy statements released September 12 by the Economic Freedom Fighters and former President Jacob Zuma compromise the credibility of the Ramaphosa administration in delivering policy stability and macroeconomic confidence. Analysis The Ramaphosa administration is preparing an economic reform package for release
Angola: MPLA party congress validates reform-led, merit-based confidence
Summary The near unanimous election September 8 of Joao Lourenço as the MPLA president, and Luísa Pedro Damião the MPLA vice president, concretize the Angolan government imperative to restore reform-led, merit-based political and economic confidence. Analysis Joao Lourenço was elected president of the Popular Movement
Zimbabwe: the Zim dollar, confidence in apolitical economy
Summary The proposed reintroduction of the Zimbabwean dollar provides a means to measure domestic and foreign confidence in the Mnangagwa administration. Zim dollar confidence depends in turn on apolitical economic policy and unfettered output, which Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube enjoys a strong start with. Analysis
Eritrea, Ethiopia: borders reopen, cross border FDI to follow
Summary The leaders of Eritrea and Ethiopia met September 11 to officially reopen the two principal supply chain border crossing gateways connecting Ethiopia, Eritrea and global markets. The inaugural events validate newfound geopolitical confidence held between the two governments, and paves the way for expected
Democratic Republic of the Congo: cobalt, copper growth validates Kabila’s confidence
Summary Significant growth in 2018 in the Congo’s cobalt and copper sectors validate the policy and electoral confidence held by President Joseph Kabila. Analysis Cobalt mining production grew by a third and copper output by almost ten percent during the first half of 2018 compared
Nigeria: CBN seizing bank’s funds affirms rising political risk outlook
Summary Nigeria’s political risk level rose higher following the unilateral seizure September 6 by the Central Bank of Nigeria of funds from accounts held by Standard Chartered, Stanbic IBTC, Citibank Nigeria, and Diamond Bank. Degrading confidence in Nigerian equities and higher domestic and foreign borrowing
Zimbabwe: Mnangagwa’s new cabinet, economy cluster of apolitical appointments
Summary The formation of Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s new cabinet September 7 reflects a composition of few securocrats, some party loyalists, and for the economy cluster, appointments made principally for their technocratic qualifications intended to convey domestic and foreign investor confidence. Analysis Zimbabwean President Emmerson
Democratic Republic of the Congo: elections, ameliorating political risk premium
Summary With Democratic Republic of the Congo elections due on December 23 and the Emmanuel Ramazani platform performing coherently, unlike the country’s opposition, the political risk premium on foreign mining interests exposed to the Congo has likely been already factored in, and should soon ameliorate.
Angola: MPLA congress to validate Lourenco’s economic, political reforms
Summary Angolan President Joao Lourenço’s likely unanimous election on September 8 as the leader of the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) will validate the government’s political and economic reforms that in turn will underwrite confidence in another Eurobond issuance and foreign credit
Eritrea, Ethiopia, China: $1bn+ for Nevsun affirms detente
Summary The $1.4 billion friendly takeover by China’s Zijin Mining Group of Nevsun Resources will provide a significant boost to copper-zinc mining in Eritrea. The acquisition was empowered by the unfolding detente between Eritrea and Ethiopia, and reflects effectively a $400 million peace dividend since
Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia: summit in Asmara on economic cooperation, FDI
Summary The trilateral summit in Asmara September 5 between the leaders of Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia operationalizes agreements for peace and economic cooperation between these Horn of Africa countries and facilitates foreign investment objectives, notably from the United Arab Emirates. Analysis Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy
South Africa: political risk & Nene’s MTBPS
Summary There are seven weeks until South African Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene delivers his Medium Term Budget Policy Statement. Facing an economy now in recession places renewed pressure on Nene, but an evolving ANC-EFF electoral coalition raises the political risk of the finance minister’s constrained
Africa, China and the West: the contest of conditionality
Editor’s note: for a complimentary copy of this analysis please send a request to support@geomarketsafrica.com. Summary The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) taking place in Beijing September 3-4 is an opportunity for African governments to address Chinese and Western models of political economic conditionality. Kenya and
South Africa: ANC, EFF coalition talks, rising political economic risk
Summary Coalition governing planning meetings next week between the African National Congress and the Economic Freedom Fighters do not instill confidence in South Africa’s political economic outlook. Analysis The African National Congress (ANC) head of elections and campaigning Fikile Mbalula stated August 31 that South
Eritrea, Russia: strategic diplomacy in Sochi
Summary The August 31 meeting in Sochi between the Russian and Eritrean foreign ministers notably expands the range of Eritrea’s strategic relations that Asmara has achieved since its detente accord with Ethiopia. Geopolitical strategy rather than commercial ties explain what Asmara and Moscow see in
Kenya: bill to increase debt ceiling, defense of hegemon imperatives
Summary A legislative bill to raise the Kenyan government’s debt ceiling may provide the means for the Kenyatta administration to finalize a highway construction contract with Bechtel and complete other supply chain infrastructure. Kenya’s political imperative to defend its place as East Africa’s commercial hegemon
Zimbabwe: Mnangagwa securing path for reform
Summary In the five days since Emmerson Mnangagwa was inaugurated Zimbabwean president he has elevated transparency, accountability, and reassurance within the country’s security forces while also beginning an outreach to his civilian and oppositional constituents. Mnangagwa’s efforts have yielded preliminary British, European Union and German
Tanzania: Standard Chartered rail funding boost for China’s Belt and Road
Summary The $1.46 billion funding by Standard Chartered bank of Tanzania’s standard gauge rail project not only raises Tanzania’s economic outlook but validates a pact for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Analysis The Tanzanian government announced August 29 that Standard Chartered approved a $1.46 billion
Nigeria: $8 billion order against MTN, political risk as usual
Summary Despite the market-discouraging dramatic order by the Central Bank of Nigeria for MTN and four of its bankers to repatriate over $8 billion in allegedly improperly externalized dividends, it was political business as usual August 30 for Nigeria’s ruling All Progressive’s Congress. Analysis It
Nigeria: no PIB, improved Niger Delta political stability
Summary Political stability in Nigeria’s oil producing Niger Delta region was improved August 29 when President Muhammadu Buhari did not sign the pending Petroleum Industry Bill. Analysis Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari on August 29 rejected signing the legislature’s Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB). A day earlier
Chad: anomalous incident at Glencore’s Mangara oil field
Summary A truck carrying crude oil caught fire and exploded at Glencore’s Mangara oil field in Chad. The incident is anomalous, and given the Chadian regime’s heightened security, political and economic stress, it bears monitoring. Analysis Glencore stated August 28 a truck used to transport
Ethiopia: GERD contract lost, reforms gained
Summary The Abiy Ahmed administration canceling of the electromechanical works on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is to ensure a technically capable team complete the job. The contract cancellation compromises ethnic Tigray interests in the country’s Metals and Engineering Corporation who held the contract, but
Sierra Leone: oil licensing round, anti-corruption ill confidence
Summary The Sierra Leonean political party the All People’s Congress (APC) stated August 27 it filed a case at the country’s Supreme Court to oppose the creation of a Commission of Enquiry into alleged corruption offenses it committed while the country’s 2007-2018 government. The filing
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Inga 3 power project affirmed
Summary The Inga 3 hydroelectric power project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) saw its potential development – and that of the Congo’s mining and industrial sectors – affirmed August 27 through its inclusion in the release for public comment of South Africa’s
Africa and the Social Contract
Editor’s note: for a complimentary copy of this analysis please send a request to support@geomarketsafrica.com. Summary This past week in Africa saw the social contract as understood affirmed – in Angola, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Tanzania and Zimbabwe – or challenged, in the case of Chad,
Zimbabwe: ConCourt rules for Mnangagwa
Summary Zimbabwe’s Constitutional Court confirmed Emmerson Mnangagwa the victor in the country’s July 30 presidential election. Mnangagwa’s next job, following his inauguration on August 26, will be to cooperate with and regain the confidence of his domestic civilian constituents so as to restore foreign investor
Côte d’Ivoire: in Bouaké, intel preparation of the political battlefield
Summary The appointment of the ex-New Forces commander Tuo Fozié as prefect of Bouaké signals that intelligence requirements on rebel intentions and capabilities is now a political priority as Côte d’Ivoire prepares for a 2020 presidential election. It is, however, unclear whose allegiance Fozié serves.
Angola, Germany: credit, engineering, tech, boost for econ reform
Summary The Angolan president secured $500 million in credit facilities during his August 22-23 visit to Germany. German engineering and technology may be used with the funding to establish hydroelectric power generation and steel manufacturing, underscoring the Angolan leader’s imperative of raising economic growth through
South Africa, U.S: adverse Trump tweet, but not for Ramaphosa’s politics
Summary A tweet by U.S. President Donald Trump over South Africa’s land expropriation policy heightens negative attention on the South African economy. The attention is not necessarily politically negative for President Ramaphosa, who can use it to counter far-left criticisms he is captured by “white
South Africa: uncomfortable econ data
Summary Two uncomfortable questions of unemployment and land expropriation posed to President Ramaphosa in South Africa’s parliament August 22 speak to the constancy of African National Congress political imperatives no matter the ruing party’s leadership change. Analysis South African President Cyril Ramaphosa faced two challenging
Chad: rebel, union, economic pressure
Summary Consecutive attacks by the rebel CCMSR combined with civil society protests against government austerity measures are raising pressure on the administration of Chadian President Idriss Déby. The challenges facing Déby are sub-critical however, and do not obstruct his imperative of authoritarian rule. Analysis Chadian
Côte d’Ivoire: civil service arrears paid, 2020 election scenario
Summary The Côte d’Ivoire administration of President Alassane Ouattara disbursed funds to bring current the salary arrears owed to the country’s civil service. The move is but one measure to inflate public sector spending in defense of the ruling party’s 2020 reelection ambition. Given an
Angola, Germany: Lourenço-Merkel visit, imperative for trade, economic support
Summary President Joao Lourenço will conduct an official visit to Germany August 22-23. The Angolan leader faces a political imperative of securing significant economic support to sustain his crucial reform agenda, thus compelling him to Berlin to negotiate a trade and economic package. Analysis Angolan
Eritrea: robust diplomacy, patience for economic dividend
Summary The Eritrean government has conducted an extensive diplomatic engagement program in the six weeks since Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed visited Asmara. The diplomatic outreach raises the political outlook for Eritrea, Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa region, however the time to maturity of
Africa and the Contest over Political, Economic Monopolies
Editor’s note: for an unembargoed copy of this analysis please send a request to support@geomarketsafrica.com. Analysis Political and economic monopolies are common tendencies in many jurisdictions. Monopolistic behavior can provide stability and certainty, which some actors use while trying to achieve collective good purposes. Monopolies
SADC summit: legitimacy for Congo’s Kabila, Zimbabwe’s Mnangagwa, Angola’s Lourenco, Mozambique’s Nyusi
Summary The SADC summit in Windhoek will see Congo’s Kabila, Zimbabwe’s Mnangagwa, Angola’s Lourenco, and Mozambique’s Nyusi receive diplomatic legitimacy for their respective reforms. Analysis President Joseph Kabila travelled to the capital of Namibia to participate in the August 17-18 summit of Southern African Development
South Africa: ANC, constrained to reverse the rand slide
Editor’s note: for an unembargoed copy of this analysis please send a request to support@geomarketsafrica.com. Summary The South African rand has steadily depreciated under African National Congress rule, falling sixteen percent in the span since Cyril Ramaphosa became the country’s president. Economic policy priorities divide
Nigeria: 2019 elections, absence of Niger Delta militancy, favorable political economic outlook
Summary The absence of militancy in Nigeria’s oil-producing Niger Delta region is a significant marker as the country anticipates general elections in early 2019. A shift in electioneering patterns explains the favorable outlook for the Nigerian political economy despite many other troubling challenges. Analysis Nigeria
Senegal: elections, oil & gas, rising political economic outlook
Summary Senegal is attracting meaningful investor interest in its emerging offshore oil and gas sector. As the country prepares for a presidential election in 2019, the incumbent Macky Sall is asserting competitive democratic principles over the hydrocarbons space, in compliance with Senegal’s political imperatives, to
Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana: maritime, oil & gas cooperation a political imperative
Summary The Ivoirian government will host its Ghanaian counterparts in Yamoussoukro in October to sign maritime boundary and hydrocarbon cooperation agreements. The agreements aim to resolve a legal ruling brought to establish sovereignty over offshore hydrocarbons-rich waters. The Côte d’Ivoire president is endorsing the bilateral
The Congo and the Contest over Term Limits in Africa
Analysis The decision this week by President Joseph Kabila of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to stand down from seeking reelection when his country holds elections in December addresses a deeply controversial subject in Africa: the status of term limits on presidential leaders.
Ethiopia: ONLF ceasefire, affirming the de-escalating risk outlook
Summary The arrival August 12 of representatives of the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) in the Ethiopian capital following their declaration of a unilateral ceasefire underscore the improving political and economic look for Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa region. Analysis The unilateral cease-fire declared
Zimbabwe: constitutional court compliance, Mnangagwa affirming his confidence build
Summary Complying with a Constitutional Court order issued August 10 to suspend the inauguration of Emmerson Mnangagwa does not materially alter the likely outcome of Zimbabwe’s presidential election. Rather, compliance provides an opportunity for the Zimbabwean government to extend legitimacy to governing institutions thereby affirming
South Africa: proposed public sector job cuts, counterbalance to adverse policy
Summary A proposal by the Ramaphosa administration to retrench 30,000 public sector workers would be on the surface to redress rising pressure on the country’s treasury. The true political agenda is likely to counterbalance otherwise adverse economic policies. The development will come at a steep
Mali: Keïta’s likely run-off win, no fix to political economic outlook
Summary President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta is likely to win reelection when Mali holds a run-off vote on August 12. Keïta’s reelection, while resolving the country’s tense electoral season, does not mean the political and economic outlook for Mali is improved. Analysis Mali will hold a
Zimbabwe: the day after Mnangagwa’s inauguration
Summary Emmerson Mnangagwa will be inaugurated Zimbabwean president on August 12. His challenge come August 13 will be to restore political and economic confidence at home so that he can restore confidence abroad. Analysis Emmerson Mnangagwa will be inaugurated Zimbabwean president on August 12. On
Côte d’Ivoire: collapse of the RHDP, deepening geopolitical risk
Summary The political risk outlook for Côte d’Ivoire rose measurably following the announcement by Henri Konan Bédié that his party has quit the fledgling ruling alliance led by President Alassane Ouattara. Ethnopolitical divides in Côte d’Ivoire are reasserting themselves compelling the Ivoirian government to inflate
Ethiopia: Somali region president’s resignation, Prime Minister’s imperatives
Summary The forced resignation of Somali region president Abdi Illey complies with Ethiopia’s geopolitical imperative of the defense of the country’s ethnographically diverse territorial integrity. Abdi’s threat to the changing pattern of national Ethiopian politics, and the loss of his former political patrons, meant the
Angola: negotiations with De Beers validates Lourenco reforms
Summary Negotiations between the Angolan government and the De Beers Group validate diamond sector reforms initiated by Angolan president Joao Lourenco and underscore an improved outlook for the Angolan economy. Analysis Angolan President Joao Lourenco hosted on August 7 De Beers Group Chief Executive Officer
DRC: Kabila’s successor, stability, continuity
Summary Emmanuel Ramazani is the nominee to succeed President Joseph Kabila of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The development complies with Congo’s constitution and electoral commission requirements, which will see Kabila lauded an exemplar of presidential leadership. Recent reforms and restructuring as well as
Gabon: legislative elections, austerity, consensus for creditor renegotiations
Summary The scheduling of long overdue legislative and municipal elections removes one significant political stressor facing the Ondimba administration in Gabon. The Gabonese government will work with its new opposition to achieve consensus necessary to sustain unpopular austerity measures sufficient to negotiate new international economic
Mozambique: Eurobond restructuring, beyond the nadir of risk, cost
Summary The Mozambique government is negotiating a restructuring of its Eurobond debts. The country’s improved political and economic risk profile mean the country has already passed the nadir of sovereign risk and cost. Analysis The Mozambique government of President Felipe Nyusi is negotiating August 7
Angola: ameliorated political risk, UNITA’s call for dialogue
Summary The political risk outlook for Angola is made better following a call for dialogue by Angola’s top oppositional movement, UNITA. With one month remaining until Angolan President Joao Lourenco’s succession to the ruling party’s presidency, the Angolan leader is presenting a strong case restoring
Cote d’Ivoire: political risk and Ouattara’s state of the nation
Summary President Ouattara will address his nation on the eve of Côte d’Ivoire’s 58th anniversary of independence. The Ivoirian president will want to convey that national stability is being achieved, however the reemergence of once-buried ethnopolitical divisions undermines Ouattara’s confidence and points to elevated political
South Africa: Ramaphosa’s Look East foreign policy
Summary South Africa hosting the summit of BRICS leaders July 26-27 allows President Cyril Ramaphosa to bring coherence to his foreign policy behavior. Under-confidence by conventional Western allies is empowering the South African president to look East for crucial avenues of economic support. Despite foreign
Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo: a geopolitical deal over hydroelectricity
Summary: A framework hydroelectricity cooperation agreement between the governments of Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo facilitates geopolitical stability in Angola’s Cabinda exclave. The Kabila regime in the DRC, certainly motivated by its upcoming general elections,benefits from a boost in bilateral confidence by
Cote d’Ivoire: where good rains instill Ouattara confidence
Summary: Higher than average rainfall anticipated for Cote d’Ivoire’s cocoa-growing regions will translate into an ameliorated political economic outlook for 2019. As presidential elections in 2020 approach, however, ethnopolitical divisions will spread as unfulfilled ambitions divide the country. Rainfall data published in Cote d’Ivoire July
South Africa, KSA, UAE: Investment pledges necessary for ANC to offset adverse domestic policy
Summary: The investment pledges by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates advance President Cyril Ramaphosa’s goal of raising $100 billion in foreign investment. But as the commitments by the Gulf states are probably less firm than the political imperatives the South African government faces
Democratic Republic of the Congo: reshuffle of military leaders, the latest restructuring
Summary: The July 14 reshuffle of military leadership is the latest executive action in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to assert regime control over the country’s levels of geopolitical power. The Kabila regime is narrowing margins of weakness as it approaches the nomination deadline
Sierra Leone: investigation into Koroma-era administration deters confidence
Summary: The order by President Julius Maado Bio for Attorney General Priscilla Schwartz to establish a commission of inquiry into allegations of corruption committed by his predecessor’s administration undermines opposition-held confidence in the government and downgrades the country’s political stability. Bio’s ability to raise the
Eritrea, Ethiopia: presidential visit to Addis
Summary: The economic outlook continues to shine for Eritrea and Ethiopia following plans by the Eritrean president to lead three-day state visit to Ethiopia. Both governments will continue to carefully manage the sequencing of the normalization of bilateral ties so as to discourage dissent from
Mozambique: FRELIMO and RENAMO reach accord
Summary: The Beira accord reached between the Mozambique government of President Felipe Nyusi and the country’s principal opposition party the Mozambique National Resistance (RENAMO) affirms not only a positive political economic outlook for Mozambique but notably for natural gas exploratory interests held by ExxonMobil and
Mauritania: elevated political risk, new opposition alliance formed
Summary The formation of a political opposition alliance ahead of legislative and municipal elections scheduled for August 15 doe not immediately imperil the hold on power by the Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz regime. But fears of Aziz’ clan consolidating electoral power through upcoming foreign investments
Gabon: civil servants strike, Libreville’s inflection point
Summary A significant threat to Gabon’s social contract is placing the Ali Bongo Ondimba-led Gabonese Democratic Party in political peril. Facing an unprecedented inflection point, the Ondimba administration will likely compromise on its austerity reforms, breaching public spending caps with a consequential outcome on debt
Zimbabwe: scant on reforms, high on public sector, polled to win elections
Summary Recent pay increases demonstrate that the Zimbabwean government under President Emerson Mnangagwa is not immune to electorally-motivated but reasonable public sector wage demands. The July 30 elections provides the Mnangagwa administration the opportunity to consolidate political legitimacy and thereafter effect substantial economic structural reforms
Cote d’Ivoire: absences in new cabinet appointments discourage confidence
Summary: The Cote d’Ivoire government’s new cabinet did not instill confidence among the country’s principal political opposition. President Alassane Ouattara will address political grievances in an upcoming state of the nation address, and his apparent onward political ambitions is such that inflating patronage, putting increased
Angola, Portugal: date for Prime Minister Antonio Costa’s visit to Luanda resolved
Summary: The Angolan government finally announced the dates for the state visit by Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa. A large delegation will surely accompany Costa and the visit will result in wide-ranging agreements on energy, commercial and defense sector cooperation. Because of the nature of
Cote d’Ivoire: violence in Korhogo
Summary: Political stress is rising quickly despite there being more than two years until Cote d’Ivoire’s crucial general elections in 2020. Wanting to avoid a collapse of the state’s political integrity will compel President Alassane Ouattara and his ruling Rally of the Republicans party to
Eritrea, Ethiopia: an unprecedented leader’s summit
An unprecedented summit between the leaders of Eritrea and Ethiopia underscores a rising political-economic outlook for both country’s economies, for foreign industry operating in the countries, and for national budgets once captured to fund hitherto states of siege. A summit was held in Asmara July
Democratic Republic of the Congo: cancelled UNSG visit
Summary: The cancelled visit to the Democratic Republic of the Congo by the United Nations Secretary General and the African Union Chairperson underscore the political imperatives of the Joseph Kabila regime for regime survival by electoral success. A visit to the Democratic Republic of the
Mozambique: Rovuma LNG deal
Summary: LNG project advancements by ExxonMobil and Eni, alongside similar stages done by Anadarko, raise the economic outlook for Mozambique and will help the FRELIMO-led Mozambique government underwrite its political imperative of effecting geopolitically-crucial economic reforms. Analysis The Rovuma liquified natural gas (LNG) joint venture
Mauritania: 3rd term risk
Summary: An apparent reversal by President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz on not wanting a third term in office raises political risk levels in Mauritania and could compromise the country’s legislative and regulatory stability that foreign oil majors including ExxonMobil, BP, and Total are basing final
Senegal: oil policy by September
Summary: President Macky Sall’s instruction that his prime minister and cabinet adopt a public-private sector oil and gas framework by the end of September and with the full participation of civil society translates into a favorably long-term political-economic outlook for Senegal. Foreign oil and gas
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Katumbi’s unilaterialist shadow cabinet
Summary: Presidential hopeful Moise Katumbi’s unilateral appointment of a shadow cabinet absent the inclusion of other political opposition parties, notably of Felix Tshisekedi, severely undermines the credibility of his electoral campaign. The development disfavors amending a political and economic outlook that mining sector majors, including
Sierra Leone: reforms by Bio administration elevate political risk
Summary: Policy reforms enacted by the government of recently elected President Julius Maado Bio are elevating political risk levels. The Sierra Leone government risks undermining their bid to not only attract but retain mining and minerals investment due its nascent prosecution of maladministration and corruption
Equatorial Guinea: national political dialogue
Summary: The national political dialogue scheduled for July 16-21 in Equatorial Guinea is a notable opening of democratic space making for an improved political and economic outlook. It is premature, however, to expect the Obiang regime to dramatically amend its predatory behavior. As such, foreign
Nigeria: a split in the ruling All Progressives Congress
Summary: While a split within the ruling All Progressives Congress doesn’t meaningfully lower the chances of a President Muhammadu Buhari reelection in February 2019, the move further complicates parliamentary efforts to pass significant legislation. The Petroleum Industry Bill, even in disassembled parts, is not likely
South Africa: a threat of KwaZulu-Natal independence
Summary: South African President Cyril Ramaphosa probably didn’t anticipate one consequence of his land expropriation without compensation agenda would be a call by the Zulu king for the independence of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province. KZN independence would trigger a geostrategic crisis within South Africa, and as
Cote d’Ivoire: a cabinet reshuffle and deeper-level ethnopolitical divides
Summary: The economic outlook for Cote d’Ivoire is positive in the near term as above-average rains are watering the significant cocoa crop due for harvest from October. The political outlook is on the other hand trending negative as a result of the effective collapse of
Angola: diamonds and mining diversification
Summary: Diamond sector reforms, to include ending the monopoly held by Sodiam, will raise transparency and foreign investor protections marking a positive outlook for Angola’s political economy. Analysis Angolan Mineral Resources and Oil minister Diamantino Azevedo stated July 3 the government wants to diversify its
Eritrea, Ethiopia: anticipating a leader’s summit
Summary: An unprecedented bilateral summit possibly to be held in the coming weeks between Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will bear a very positive political-economic outlook for the divided neighbors and be net-positive for peace in the Horn of Africa
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Kabila asserting political primacy
Summary: The Congo president’s recent national address — affirming a defense of the country’s sovereignty — signals Joseph Kabila is very much asserting political control amid detractor’s calls for him to stand down from a possible reelection bid. Economic policy, including newly approved hydrocarbons drilling,
South Africa: increasing pace of land expropriation public consultations
Summary: The pace and scope of land expropriate without compensation is building in South Africa and it is only a matter of time before private land is seized. Due to electoral and populist pressures, there is no likely reversal from a hostile private land takeover.
Kenya: host community support, securing oil and gas
Summary: The Kenyan government is advancing host community talks to ensure secure end-to-end crude oil production and cooperation. These initiatives strengthen the positive outlook for Tullow Oil and other international oil companies active in Kenya. For comparison’s sake, the governments of Tanzania and Mozambique are
Tanzania, China: Beijing pressing Dar for Bagamoyo port
Summary: Chinese political will and economic acumen will drive Tanzania’s Bagamoyo port and supply chain hub into realization. But Tanzanian imperatives will constrain the Central Corridor’s optionality for regional and global trade interests. Analysis Tanzania’s minister of Works, Communication and Transport stated to the country’s
Eritrea, Ethiopia: high-level delegation an opening detente
Summary: Early steps in a lasting peace accord between Eritrea and Ethiopia portends a positive political-economic outlook for both countries. In the case of Eritrea, Canada’s Nevsum operating the Bisha gold mining complex will be positively impacted from the deescalating national security paradigm. Analysis An
South Africa: senior ANC officials signal expropriation
Summary: Two recent instances now by senior African National Congress officials point to the imminent likelihood of privately owned land expropriated without compensation. The land reform development, combined with other negative economic metrics, undermine budgetary controls and inflate borrowing costs and bond prices and yields.
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Katumbi’s overlooked Israel visit amid passport debacle
Summary: Moise Katumbi’s recent passport debacle in Brussels is significant not for the Congo government’s obstruction but because Katumbi had been arriving from a trip to Israel. Katumbi negotiating with Israeli actors for presidential campaign support in exchange for promises of future mineral concessions will
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Kabila campaigning, Glencore settlement undermine Tshibala’s no third term statement
Summary: Glencore’s settlement with Gecamines raises a positive outlook on Congo copper mining, though this doesn’t mean any amendment to Congo’s Revised mining Code. Prime Minister Tshibala’s statements of Kabila’s candidacy for presidential elections scheduled for December are intended for a diplomatic audience and don’t
Republic of the Congo: an oil licensing round and elevated political risk
Summary: An upcoming oil licensing round is intended by the Nguesso regime to raise cash resources necessary for regime survival, as a political risk outlook as 2021 nears is increasingly negative. Cash resources would allow the Nguesso government to ignore implementing economic reforms that would
Mali, France, and Randgold: July elections
Summary: Protest violence near Randgold’s Gounkoto mine pose a strategic threat to Mali’s economy in a way Islamist militancy doesn’t. Political risk in Mali remains elevated during the near-term as the country anticipates controversial national elections on July 29. Were Mali to have a sovereign
South Africa: seeking Mozambique gas
Summary: A shortage of domestically-sourced natural gas feedstock will lead South African energy minister Jeff Radebe to supply talks in Mozambique. South Africa’s deliberations whether to secure natural gas from Mozambique’s Rovuma offshore basin means Pretoria is making a strategic decision with geopolitical implications. Analysis
Gabon: a French strike against palm oil
French strikers blocking the import of palm oil and the French government taking steps to limit and reduce palm oil imports are crucial developments that will place renewed pressure on the Gabonese government of President Ali Bongo Ondimba to diversify his country’s economy. Redirecting Gabonese
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Kabila, Bemba, and Katumbi
Summary: Escalation of election campaigning leaves mining sector operators including Glencore, Randgold and AngloGold Ashanti further handicapped and facing months of turbulence Analysis Shake-ups continue to happen in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. President Joseph Kabila formed a new national political coalition called the
Tanzania, Exxon, and Mozambique: divestment from Dar in favor of Maputo
Summary: Exxon’s divestment from Tanzania in favor of Mozambique will affirm a positive outlook on Mozambique Eurobonds and sovereign credit rating. Tanzania will correspondingly face a negative outlook, however this economic cost won’t lead the Tanzanian government to amend its hostile and nationalist investment framework.
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Katumbi’s opposition rally too little too late
Summary: Appeals by Glencore, Randgold and AngloGold Ashanti and other foreign mining operators are falling on deaf ears in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, as confidence by the President Joseph Kabila regime leads Kinshasa to assert new mining regulations prejudicial to the miner’s local
Senegal: bidding for hydrocarbons transparency
Summary: A publicly-consulted strategic framework for Senegal’s oil and gas regime will underwrite a positive outlook for Cosmos Energy, Cairn Energy and Senegalese Eurobonds and even extend as far as Mauritania where industry majors ExxonMobil and Total are actively exploring Analysis The Senegalese government will
Eritrea, Ethiopia: gains from an olive branch
Summary: Eritrean detente with Ethiopia creates a positive geopolitical outlook for the Canadian-Eritrean joint copper-zinc mining venture at Bisha Analysis The Ethiopian government under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed recently announced that it will accept and implement a peace agreement it negotiated with Eritrea in 2000.
Guinea: temporary respite to oppositional disruptions
Summary: That political engagement is occurring between the Guinean government and Guinea’s top opposition in an environment absent a threat to bauxite mining operations places resolving the electoral grievances while safeguarding mining activity in a positive outlook. Analysis: Guinea’s current and a previous prime minister
Cote d’Ivoire: escalating ethnopolitical tensions
Summary: Political and economic risk will increase as the country’s 2020 elections draw near, leading to a negative outlook on the Ivoirian economy with a consequential cost to its Eurobonds Analysis Ethnopolitical tensions within and between political parties of Cote d’Ivoire, undeclared presidential aspirations for
South Africa: economic imperatives and land reform
Summary A sovereign credit rating downgrade, with consequential higher borrowing costs and Eurobond pricing, is more likely as South African President Cyril Ramaphosa adjusts to his country’s political imperatives Analysis The Ramaphosa administration in South Africa will likely hasten the gazetting of the government’s much-anticipated
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Kabila’s confidence
Summary: Glencore, Randgold, AngloGold Ashanti, and other foreign mining operators will have to compromise the fiscal terms of their Congo operations through early 2019. Analysis The government of President Joseph Kabila in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) appears confident and intent June 2
Angola: outlook improved for Cabinda exclave
Recent political-economic and security developments in Angola’s Cabinda province are improving stability and raising security for the exclave’s hydrocarbons industry. Operators including Chevron, ENI, and Total are likely to find greater breathing space from geopolitical tensions that in the past led to conflict between local
Kenya: hydrocarbons and favorable political imperatives
Summary: Despite the coming threat of ethno-political violence, Tullow Oil and crude oil-backed Kenyan securities are advantageously positioned amid favorable political imperatives in Kenya Analysis Although general elections in Kenya are not until 2022, this faraway date is not stopping the country’s political heavyweights from
Mozambique: securing natural gas investments
The Mozambique government is counting on Rosneft and ExxonMobil to make final investment decisions as early as the fourth quarter of 2018 on their offshore natural gas interests in the country’s Rovuma basin. The scale of investment in Mozambique’s LNG sector will likely exceed $30
Angola: Cabinda outlook raised by Luanda’s political-economic, security outreach
Recent political-economic and security developments in Angola’s Cabinda province are improving stability and raising security for the exclave’s hydrocarbons industry. Operators including Chevron, ENI, and Total are likely to find greater breathing space from geopolitical tensions that in the past led to conflict between local
Zimbabwe: elections date resolved
The government of Zimbabwe announced that July 30 will be when the country holds presidential, parliamentary, and municipal elections. Announcing the date seals in campaigns that have been building ever since Emerson Mnangagwa succeeded Robert Mugabe as Zimbabwean president in November 2017. Zimbabwe’s elections are
Mozambique: securing the country for natural gas investments
Summary: Upcoming Final Investment Decisions on Mozambique’s liquified natural gas developments are propelling the Mozambique government to effect policy reform enabling comprehensive support to the hydrocarbons projects. Analysis The Mozambique government is counting on Rosneft and ExxonMobil to make final investment decisions as early as
Angola, France, Belgium: Luanda diversifying its economic partners
Summary: President Lourenco’s official visits to France and Belgium are intended by the Angolan leader to assert his country’s economic imperatives by diversifying and raising crucial foreign investment. Analysis Angolan President Joao Lourenco is on a multi-day visit to Europe, beginning with France on May
South Africa: Ramaphosa losing not just KwaZulu-Natal, but the Eastern Cape too
Summary: Financial investigative actions authorized by the Cyril Ramaphosa administration deemed hostile to officials in several provinces across the country jeopardize the incumbent’s stable grasp of the embattled African National Congress. Analysis Just one day after Cyril Ramaphosa visited with provincial party members in Durban,
South Africa: Ramaphosa in KZN, in bid to recover crucial electoral confidence
Summary: Recent visits by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa to the country’s KwaZulu-Natal province are intended to recover electoral confidence the crucial ANC constituency has lost in the government leader. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has made several recent trips to the country’s KwaZulu-Natal (KZN)